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| Photo courtesy of Mike Ladue. |
Outstanding Drama Series
Projected Nominees:
Breaking Bad Season 5A, AMC
Downton Abbey Series 3, BBC / PBS
Game of Thrones Season 3, HBO
Homeland Season 2, Showtime
House of Cards Season 1, Netflix
Mad Men Season 6, AMC
Look for a near repeat of last year's nominees, and for good reason. All these shows featured water cooler moments as well as superb acting, writing and directing. Enough buzz surrounds newcomer House of Cards to displace HBO's prestigious Boardwalk Empire, but the latter show's industry adoration is so high I wouldn't be surprised if it outranks Downton Abbey or possibly (gasp) Mad Men to stick around another year. The only other spoiler would be The Americans, which built to something great but doesn't have the same influence as these heavy hitters.
Most Deserving (a.k.a. Mike's Personal Ballot):
Breaking Bad
Game of Thrones
Hannibal Season 1, NBC
Homeland
Justified Season 4, F/X
Mad Men
While I ranked Boardwalk (and BBC America's Orphan Black) higher than Mad Men on an episode-by-episode basis this year, the AMC show's finale managed to tie many of the season's dangling plots and themes together in a deeply satisfying way. Hannibal is network drama's one true gem (sorry, The Good Wife/Scandal fans) and exhibited stronger acting, cinematography and scoring that most anything on premium cable. Justified had its best season since Margo Martindale won her Emmy and featured TV's best-written episode of the year, "Decoy."
Outstanding Comedy Series
Projected Nominees:
Arrested Development Season 4, Netflix
The Big Bang Theory Season 6, CBS
Girls Season 2, HBO
Modern Family Season 4, ABC
30 Rock Season 7, NBC
Veep Season 2, HBO
Louie didn't make the cut last year and, despite snowballing critical acclaim, the fact it aired so early in the eligibility period makes me wary of its prospects. It could easily replace Girls, the most unnecessarily controversial show in history, or Arrested Development, whose grand return to "television" via Netflix was considered by some to be a huge mistake.
Most Deserving (a.k.a. Mike's Personal Ballot):
Arrested Development
Enlightened Season 2, HBO
Girls
Louie Season 3, F/X
Parks and Recreation Season 5, NBC
Veep
Years from now you'll discover Enlightened and cry that you never watched as it aired. This perfect little dramedy wasn't so much funny as it was, well, enlightening. (You will also cry for not watching Happy Endings, which is actually the funniest show on TV but had too many episodes that missed the mark this season to rise to the top). Parks & Rec had a stellar year, but the competition is fierce and support has historically middled -- remember when Nick Offerman was the frontrunner for Supporting Actor lat year? No such luck. My next-in-line would have to be Archer, which ties with Veep for meanest comedy on TV.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Projected Nominees:
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Damian Lewis, Homeland
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards
Hopefully voters are as over Dexter as I and dump Michael C. Hall from the list. Hugh Bonneville, the only other missing man from last year's lineup, could probably return in a cruel twist of fate and push out Buscemi or (gasp) Hamm. Don't expect too much love for Sorkin's polarizing The Newsroom, but Daniels was aces in the pilot and probably has enough cred to surpass also-rans like Justified's Timothy Olyphant or The Americans' Matthew Rhys.
Most Deserving (a.k.a. Mike's Personal Ballot):
Cranston
Hugh Dancy, Hannibal
Hamm
Lewis
Timothy Olyphant, Justified
Spacey
Dancy (husband of Claire Danes) was riveting to watch and Olyphant kept his charm turned to 100%.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Projected Nominees:
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jason Bateman, Arrested Development
Louis C.K., Louie
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Jake Johnson, New Girl
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Johnson's decision to jump from supporting to lead will hopefully pay off, as it did for Cryer last year. I'm inclined to finally disregard Cryer for Episodes' Matt Leblanc or House of Cards' Don Cheadle, but as Sansa so eloquently put it on Game of Thrones: "The worst ones always win."
Most Deserving (a.k.a. Mike's Personal Ballot):
Baldwin
Bateman
CK
Johnson
Parsons
Adam Scott, Parks & Recreation
I wish I could nominate H. Jon Benjamin for his outstanding work in both Archer and Bob's Burgers, but voice acting has its own category. Community's Joel McHale nearly got my vote over Parsons, but the show's unfathomable nosedive into awfulness ruined the good will I had for the man. At least he got Dan Harmon back! Adam Scott is consistently good, enough to buoy him into this relatively open category.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Projected Nominees:
Glenn Close, Damages
Claire Danes, Homeland
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
Juliana Marguiles, The Good Wife
Keri Russell, The Americans
Kerry Washington, Scandal
It took much debating to arrive at this list of leading ladies. The most vulnerable, unfortunately, is Close, but farewell nominations are not unprecedented and the character was beloved enough to win twice prior. Mad Men's Elisabeth Moss, Bates Motel's Vera Farmiga and House of Cards' Robin Wright could eek in over Russell, Dockery and Washington without making waves; the competition this year is fierce. A nomination for Orphan Black's Tatiana Maslany would make my morning/life complete... and it just might happen!
Most Deserving (a.k.a. Mike's Personal Ballot):
Close
Danes
Dockery
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Russell
Maslany is a revelation on her show and warrants major awards attention. Moss had an OK year, but I haven't seen Scandal or Bates Motel so I don't want to make an uninformed decision.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Projected Nominees:
Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation
Falco is waiting in the wings to take down McCarthy, Poehler or Dunham, but got much less press for so-so season 5 of Nurse Jackie.
Most Deserving (a.k.a. Mike's Personal Ballot):
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Deschanel
Dunham
Fey
Louis-Dreyfus
Poehler
It may be presumptuous to expect so many of my ideal choices to be nominated Thursday, but it's a testament to the Academy's ability to recognize the best talent (in my humble opinion). Dern is up there with Maslany for life-changing nominations, but this is far less expected.
The supporting categories will be presented without commentary:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Projected Nominees:
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Corey Stoll, House of Cards
Sam Waterson, The Newsroom
Most Deserving:
Banks
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Nicolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones
Walton Goggins, Justified
Maks Mikkelsen, Hannibal
Patinkin
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Projected Nominees:
Will Arnett, Arrested Development
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Most Deserving:
Arnett
Adam Driver, Girls
Greenfield
Adam Pally, Happy Endings
Chris Pratt, Parks and Recreation
Damon Wayans Jr., Happy Endings
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Projected Nominees:
Morena Baccarin, Homeland
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Monica Potter, Parenthood
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Most Deserving:
Baccarin
Rose Byrne, Damages
Clarke
Michelle Fairley, Game of Thrones
Gunn
Potter
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Projected Nominees:
Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory
Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Jessica Walter, Arrested Development
Most Deserving:
Eliza Coupe, Happy Endings
Jenna Fisher, The Office
Krakowski
Zosia Mamet, Girls
Walter
Casey Wilson, Happy Endings
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